Gold price prediction today (March 10, 2026): Is dollar playing spoilsport for gold rally?
he US Dollar stands to gain on surging oil prices as the US is energy dependent. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are competing with the strength in dollar amidst the Middle East crisis, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan:Gold Performance:
- In the week ending March 6, spot gold traded in a choppy and volatile fashion between $4996 (March 3) and $5419 (March 2) amid competing influences of strengthening US Dollar and
safe haven demand coming on geopolitical worries. - The metal, aided by a disappointing monthly US job report for February, closed 1.85% higher at $5171 on Friday; however, it still closed with a weekly loss of around 2%, first in five weeks, as the US Dollar strengthened on safe haven demand due to sharp spike in oil prices. We also note that gold had already been rallying hard on geopolitical factors anticipating Iran strike risk, so traders preferred to book profits amid volatile situations.
- The shiny metal, at the time of writing this article, was trading at $5,097, down nearly 1.5% for the day, while the MCX April gold contract at Rs 160,300 was down by 0.83%.
Geopolitics watch:
- The Iran war has entered the second week. The Islamic Republic has named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, which signals that hardliners remain firmly in charge.
- Reuters reported that France is deploying naval vessels to the Mediterranean and Red Sea for defence.
- President Trump is thinking of deploying special forces to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. He is also planning to take control of Kharg, a major crude oil export terminal of Iran.
Data roundup:
- US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92K in February Vs the forecast of +55K. Much weaker-than-expected monthly job report belied the expectations built on robust January NFP and ADP reports released earlier. Prior data were heavily revised downward: two-month net payroll revision was -69K, while nonfarm payroll’s 3-month average change stood at merely 6K. Unemployment rate edged higher from 4.3% to 4.4%, while participation rate dipped from 62.5% to 62% — the lowest since 2021 as fewer workers looked for jobs. Saving grace in the report was earnings data: earnings rose 0.4% m-o-m (forecast 0.3%) and 3.8% y-o-y (estimate 3.7%).
- The disappointing job report is attributed to bad weather, though other factors including lack of immigrant workers, AI impact and trade policy uncertainty have also been instrumental. US Retail sales data was none too encouraging either as sales fell by 0.2% (forecast -0.3%) in February after stagnating in January, though the retail sales control group, as expected, increased by 0.3% after remaining unchanged in January.
- Weak US nonfarm payroll report has dented the optimistic outlook of the US economy reflected in US ISM PMIs data released earlier in the week ending February 6.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar stands to gain on surging oil prices as the US is energy dependent, which is leading to resurgence of Dollar as a safe haven asset. Consequently, the Dollar Index closed with a weekly gain of around 1.5% at 99. At the time of writing, the Index was trading with a gain of 0.20% at 99.20.
- US bonds, which rallied on safe haven demand before the Gulf war broke out, have lost some of the ground on being hit by inflation risks as oil spikes sharply higher. That’s why US yields hardened last week. Two-year US yields at 3.56% were up by around 5% for the week, while ten-year yields hardened by the same magnitude to settle at 4.13%. At the time of writing, the 2-year yields were up 3 bps, while ten-year yields had edged higher by 1 bps.
Rate moves:
- Global bond yields are rising as investors bet that inflationary concerns will force the Central banks like European Central Bank and the Bank of England to hike rates.
- Investors see the Fed cutting rates nearly 40 bps this year, which amounts to nearly 1.5 rate cuts, lower sharply from 2+ rate cuts seen before the start of the Iran war.
Gold ETFs:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings fell for the fifth consecutive day on February 6. Holdings now at 99.97 Moz are up by around 1.02 MOz YTD.
Gold CFTC data:
- Fund managers boosted their net long and long only positions to five-week high in the week ending March 3. The net long position was up by 918 lots to 100,855 lots.
Gold Price Outlook:
- Gold’s safe haven demand has to compete with the Dollar’s safe haven demand as oil prices act as a key arbiter between the two in near term.
- The disappointing US monthly job report of February is expected to cushion the downside in the metal.
- Bears need to take the metal below $4840 to gain downward traction, while bulls need a decisive breach of resistance at $5450 to gain upper hand in this ongoing tussle.
- Dollar Index and yields will be crucial to the metal’s moves in near term.
- The yellow metal, caught between safe haven demand and a stronger
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
